Use the tsibble created from
tourismfor holiday travel in Victoria and Queensland.- Plot the series to remind yourself what these look like.
- Use the
ETS()function to fit models to both series. Explore the resultingmableusingreport(),glance()andtidy() - Plot the estimated components of each model.
- Generate forecasts using
forecast().
Use the exports data exports data for Algeria from the
global_economytsibble.- Plot the data. Is this time series white noise? What ETS model would be appropriate?
- Use the
ETS()function to fit appropriate models with both additive and multiplicative errors. What model is chosen automatically? Explore the estimated models. - Plot the components of the two models. What do you see?
- Explore the residuals of the two models. What do you see?
- Generate and plot forecasts.
Use the population data for Australia
(country == "AUS")from theglobal_economytsibble.- Scale the data to be in millions and plot it.
- Fit both a model with a linear and a damped trend and study the estimated parameters.
- Generate forecasts for 30 years ahead from both models and plot them. What do you see?
- Fit both models using data up to 2010. Generate forecasts for the remainder of the sample and evaluate their accuracy.
Do Exercise 6 from Section 8.8.