Tutorial learning objectives - Week 9

By the end of this tutorial, you should be able to:

  1. Identify AR and MA Terms from ACF and PACF Plots
  • Interpret autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation plots.
  • Use these plots to decide on appropriate AR and MA orders for ARIMA models.
  1. Fit and Evaluate ARIMA Models
  • Use the ARIMA() function to fit non-seasonal ARIMA models.
  • Check model residuals to see if the model fits well.
  • Compare different ARIMA models and understand how drift, differencing, and lag order affect forecasts.
  1. Understand and Use Backshift Notation
  • Write ARIMA models using backshift notation.
  • Forecast using the backshift notation.